His criticism of Merkel could embolden her right-wing domestic adversaries at a time when she’s been weakened by a fight over immigration policy, and even a modest push from Trump could help topple May and deliver her job to a Tory who is more committed to isolating Britain from the European Union. While Trudeau is hardly in a precarious position, he is slowly but surely getting lonelier as the leader of a major democratic nation committed to international economic and defense accords.
After sitting down with Merkel Wednesday — and after launching his visit here by tearing into Germany over both the pipeline and its failure to hit a NATO target for defense spending — Trump is due to meet with May Thursday and Friday in the U.K. He has said her political fate is “up to the people.”
But it probably isn’t — and Trump probably knows that. May’s most immediate problem is a push from within her own party to sack her with a no-confidence vote among party caucus members. If someone — perhaps just-resigned Foreign Minister Boris Johnson — can put together the votes to succeed her, May could be gone within a matter of weeks.
Her crime, in the eyes of national populists: Trying to engineer a softer exit from the E.U. than many of her colleagues wanted. Now her wisdom and judgment are being questioned not by the opposition Labour Party, but by fellow conservatives in the U.K. and around the world.
“Trump visit couldn’t come at a worse time for May,” one U.S. source with ties to U.K. conservatives said, adding that there is a “big push” to dump her.
Trump could show a sign of support for May, or refuse to take her side — or even possibly become an active part of the movement to replace her. Anything less than a full-throated endorsement would naturally be taken as a sign that Trump doesn’t favor her remaining in power.
And, so far, he has withheld such an endorsement.
At the same time, Trump is eager to sit down with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a nationalist leader upon whom Trump has showered praise in the past. Rather than friend or foe, Trump has characterized Putin as a “competitor” in the international arena — even after Russia meddled in the 2016 election and even as Trump administration officials and members of both parties in Congress say Russia is continuing to try influence future elections.
Trump isn’t just cozying up to a longtime foe and giving the cold shoulder to staunch allies. He’s also making life difficult for leaders who have stood in the way of the conservative nationalist politics that have swept Europe and the U.S. over the last several years.