Turkey’s Financial Crisis Surprised Many. Except This Analyst.

Today, according to the Institute of International Finance, a banking trade group, corporate debt in foreign currencies is $5.5 trillion, the most ever.

And Turkey relies on such foreign-currency debt more than any other major emerging market. Corporate, financial and other debt denominated in foreign currencies, mostly dollars, represents about 70 percent of Turkey’s economy, according to the I.I.F. Turkish companies and real estate developers used borrowed dollars to pay for new factories, shopping malls and the skyscrapers that now define the Istanbul skyline.

The threat is that as the lira loses value, it becomes more expensive for Turkish companies to repay their dollar-denominated loans. Indeed, a growing number of companies in Turkey already have said they cannot repay these loans.

“Companies there just ignored all the risks and kept borrowing in dollars,” Mr. Lee said.

And that has the potential to spread far and wide. American investors, for example, own nearly 25 percent of outstanding Turkish bonds and more than half of publicly traded Turkish stocks, according to the I.I.F.

Mr. Lee these days is far from the only one warning about the Turkish economy and financial system. The thing that really worries him and other bearish investors is that Turkey could be a signal for

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/11/business/turkey-lira-crisis.html

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